DR. OMED’S LATE NITE SERMONETTE

LIES, DAMN LIES, AND STATISTICS:
WHY THE HUMAN RACE CAN’T DO THE NUMBERS

I had a little bird,
Its name was Enza.
I opened the window,
And in-flu-enza.

Le superflu, chose tres necessaire—Voltaire*

Estimated number of people killed in the 9-11 attacks:
2,986
Average number of people killed
in auto accidents in the United States per year:
42,000
Estimated number of people killed instantly
in the atomic bombing of Hiroshima in 1945:
80,000
Estimated number of people dead
from the after-effects of the Hiroshima bombing by 1950:
200,000
American soldiers killed (so far)
in the invasion and occupation of Iraq:
2,280
American soldiers wounded (so far)
in the invasion and occupation of Iraq:
16,653
Estimated number of Iraqis killed (so far)
in the invasion and occupation of Iraq:
28,000 to 32,000
British soldiers killed and wounded on the first day
of the Battle of the Somme in WWI:
58,000
Estimated rate of species extinct per year:
50,000
The total human population of Earth
projected to 02/23/06 at 03:39 GMT (EST+5):
6,499,416,902
Total increase in the human population of Earth
since the day before yesterday (2/20):
621,648
Total killed in six natural disasters aka Acts of God
(Southeast Asia tsunami; Sumatra earthquake;
Hurricane Katrina; Hurricane Stan mudslide in El Salvador;
earthquake in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India;
mudslide in the Philippines)
occurring between 12/26/04 and 2/17/06:
491,120
Percent of total human population of Earth
represented by the 491,120 aforesaid victims of Acts of God:
1 five thousandth of 1 percent
Human population of Earth in 1918:
1,800,000,000
Estimated number of people dead in the 1918-1919 flu pandemic:
Lowball: 20,000,000
Highball: 40,000,000
(1.1 to 2.2 percent of the then current world population)
Number of people dead from AIDS since 1980:
25,000,000
(A much smaller fraction of the current world population)

If the H5N1 bird flu virus morphs into a form as virulent to humans as the 1918 influenza pandemic, killing the same percentage of the current total world population, the number of dead flu victims would be approximately 71,500,000 to 143,000,00. At the current rate of population increase, that number would be replaced in less than a year in the case of the lowball number and in less than two years in the case of the highball number. As I said in Dick Jones’ comment box;

We are the Plague.

But, collectively, the human race can’t do—or face—the math. We’re past due for the herd to be thinned. Speaking entirely metaphorically (Okay, Dick?), the H5N1 virus is just a little something Mother Gaia has simmering in a petrie dish on the back burner. Disease, natural disasters and the effects of climate change are not killing us fast enough. We aren’t killing us fast enough. Only a real bastard of a cataclysm, perhaps combining several factors will provide the economy of scale required. After all, it takes four horsemen, according to Revelations. Supersize that Armageddon.

Our species, except for termites and ants, is, pound for pound, the largest, most wide spread terrestrial source of protein rich food on Earth. I don’t actually believe in the Gaia Hypothesis, but I do put some credence in the process of natural selection. The founder mutation that creates a bug that can eat us wholesale will likely be very successful. We are not privileged to sit at the top of the food chain and root, hog, root ‘til Jesus calls us home. We are all tomorrow’s food. Soylent Green is people.

My simulacrum of the facts, ma’am, just the facts; my heapin’ helpin’ of lies, damn lies, and statistics may not be tasty with fries and a shake; feel free to collect your own, more palatable set. But you have to able to count past one...two...many. I do not regard my assessment, such as it is, a counsel of despair. I certainly don’t think we can kill the biosphere; I think maybe we should stop trying so hard to do it. We can..will…have impoverished the diversity of the biosphere to the point of creating a major extinction event, like the Permian or Cretaceous extinctions. Life on earth has all always come back, even from the worst extinction events, but tell that to the trilobites and dinosaurs. I don’t even think the human race will go extinct, but our descendents will likely live in an impoverished material civilization and culture, unless we make some big changes, right now. There are things we can do every day to make the future better, and to save what we haven’t already lost. I love the smell of burning bridges in the morning.

*"The superflous is very necessary."

Note: Dr. Omed would to thank Dick, Karen, and Meg for their inspiration.